COVID-19 Risk Assessment

Risk Assessment: Contracting COVID-19 and any Variants of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus Versus Injury from Vaccination

Andy Oakley 23 November 2021


For certain businesses the government is mandating that people who deal with customers must be fully vaccinated. The government has not defined what ‘fully vaccinated’ means or is at least contradicting itself. One may think that at present fully vaccinated means having two injections of the Pfizer mRNA vaccine. However, the new vaccine certificate being rolled out by the government is valid for only six months. This is because the government may require boosters and only then will a person be fully vaccinated.

The effects of contracting COVID-19 and not receiving effective early treatment range from being completely asymptomatic to hospitalisation with pneumonia. Currently, in New Zealand, the government has removed the most effective early treatment, Ivermectin. This is despite rigorous trials, decades of anecdotal safe use, and many papers, including, ‘Ivermectin for Prevention and Treatment of COVID-19 Infection: A Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, and Trial Sequential Analysis to Inform Clinical Guidelines of Ivermectin being published in the American Journal of Therapeutics.’ That data can be found here;

The treatment regime in New Zealand has therefore been reduced to testing as many people as possible, including all the healthy people with an unreliable PCR test. The government then passes on the daily positive test results to the public via the media and tells everyone that they want the whole nation to get vaccinated. This is despite the World Health Organisation stating that they have a target of 40% of the population of every country being the target and that “no country can simply vaccinate its way out of a pandemic.—12-november-2021

However, in early infection with a very low viral level, it is possible that a PCR test cannot detect the infection, in such cases the test can result in a false-negative result. Additionally, there might be a false positive result due to contamination.

The CDC themselves have indicated that the PCR testing method can result in false-positive tests up to 50% of the time. . As a result, positive tests are clearly an unreliable measure of the extent of any community outbreak of the virus and so also cannot be used as a measure in any risk assessment.

As the government has removed the possibility of early treatment, which is in my estimation inhumane, and with no reliable data as to the extent of any outbreak. There is no reliable published data to assess how dangerous the COVID-19 virus is.

As a result, in this risk assessment, I propose to weigh up the risks between the two choices people have to protect themselves from the SARS-Cov-2 virus in New Zealand.

  • The risks associated with receiving the Pfizer mRNA vaccine
  • The risks associated with relying on being healthy and the protection of their own immune system

We will do that using only the government published data, but purposefully ignoring their published data on cases, as that is unreliable.

Risks and consequences of contracting COVID-19

Data retrieved from

As of November 23, 2021, in the 21 months, since COVID-19 was first reported in March 2020, there have been 40 recorded deaths where people have died after having tested positive for COVID-19. We should take note that the period in question has two winters in it, the period where most cases of flu and viruses are prevalent and that vaccines were only available for the second outbreak, 2021. Obviously, as was discussed earlier in this document, this figure could be compromised by the false positives noted by the CDC earlier in this document.

More than half of the 40 deaths occurred in two specific outbreaks, 12 in Canterbury and 11 in Waitemata. The other 17 deaths were randomly spread throughout New Zealand.

There are currently 69 people in hospitals throughout New Zealand who have tested positive for COVID-19. However, in the government COVID-19 live stream on November 1, 2021, at the 4-minute mark, Ashley Bloomfield, stated that although the hospital case numbers are rising a number of those people are in hospital for reasons other than COVID-19.

We must also factor in that there have been no cases reported in New Zealand since March 2020 where a person has died ‘only’ of COVID-19. That is not to say there has been none, it is just that none have been reported publicly.

If we compare the yearly mortality rates for deaths by influenza and pneumonia in New Zealand here,, we can see that mortality rates have been dropping rapidly from about 40 per 100,000 in the 1990s to about 7.9 per 100,000 in 2017. If we take the 40 deaths, we have had for COVID-19 over the past 21 months of the pandemic the deaths per 100,000 is 1.25. If we half that because there were two winters, one with no vaccines available and one where vaccines were ramping up, we get 0.62 people per 100, 000 population. There is no data for other flu’s, apparently, there are no other flu’s.

One can see that something is going on here that is alarming, there are active COVID-19 cases all over New Zealand and practically no one is dying of it. The more the spread of COVID-19, the fewer people are dying of flu-related symptoms. Although we should ignore testing data, because it is inaccurate, like other places around the world, the higher the vaccine rate in any given area the higher the positive tests in those places. This is what the government data shows us.


  • The risk of dying from COVID-19 is practically zero
  • The higher the vaccination rates in any area the higher the positive test cases
  • There are no official government data that reliably indicate the number of people who suffer severe consequences from COVID-19
  • The government has officially said that although hospitalizations are increasing, the people in hospitals with positive COVID-19 tests are NOT necessarily in there because of COVID-19.
  • The hospitals were relatively empty in the 2020 outbreak and despite record surging cases in 2021, Ashley Bloomfield stated that they are not overrun by COVID -19 patients in 2021.

Risks of injury and consequences from taking the Pfizer vaccine

Data retrieved from

The data for vaccine injuries is collated from the Centre for Adverse Reactions Monitoring (CARM). The Ministry of Health (through Medsafe) contracts the collection of this information to CARM, based in Dunedin.

On Medsafe’s own website they state the following.

“New Zealand has the highest rate of reporting adverse reactions to medicines in the world, both in terms of reports per 1000 doctors and reports per million population. This does not reflect a bigger problem in New Zealand; rather we are more diligent about reporting these events. However, it is estimated that only 5% of all reactions are reported so there is still room for improvement.”

As of 30 October 2021, there have been 34,100 injuries reported. As per the government estimate, only 5 % of adverse reactions are reported, so the number could be as high as 682,000 vaccine injuries.

As of 30 October 2021, there have been 97 mortalities after having the vaccine. As per the government estimate, only 5 % of adverse reactions are reported, so the number could be much higher.

Although when a patient dies after testing positive for COVID-19, they are registered as a COVID-19 death, the same does not apply when a patient dies after having a vaccine, the government instead try to explain away these deaths using word such as “unlikely” and “could not be assessed” or “still under investigation”. I believe this is unethical and so will ignore their explaining things away because it skews the actual reported death numbers, which is 97.

Risk of Death Assessment Using Data from March 2020 to October 2021

Death from Covid-19 per 100,000 population = 0.8

Death from vaccine per 100,000 population = 1.94

According to government data, you are more than twice as likely to die from the vaccine than COVID-19

Risk of Injury Assessment Using Data from March 2020 to October 2021

Injury from Covid-19 per 100,000 population = no data

Known injuries from vaccines per 100,000 population = between 682 (lowest) and 13,640 (highest)

According to government data, there have been 10,393 positive tests for COVID-19 in New Zealand. Given that the government state that 682 injuries are only about 5% and the actual number of injuries, it is likely to be more like 13,360. That number is higher than all the positive tests ever recorded in New Zealand and so you are clearly more at risk from vaccine injuries than suffering adverse effects from COVID-19.


  • According to one of the most published medical experts in the world, Dr. Peter McCulloch, and all of the medical professionals at the Front LIne Covid-19 Critical Care Alliance, if the government allowed proven early treatment antivirals, such as Ivermectin, the COVID-19 numbers would be reduced by two thirds. Making the risks of vaccines injuries as opposed to the risks of serious consequences from COVID-19 statistically much higher than in this risk assessment. Why has the New Zealand government removed this treatment and dictated to doctors how to treat their patients?


  • According to the CDC, the most important thing a person can do to avoid serious effects from COVID-19 is to eat healthily and to be the correct BMI, not just be vaccinated. Yet the people who eat healthily and are the correct BMI, if they are unvaccinated, are discriminated against by the government and also by the ignorant general public. This risk assessment shows that unvaccinated healthy people have practically zero chance of having any serious effects from COVID-19 and are more than twice as likely to die from the vaccine than Covid-19.


  • According to the World Health Organisation (WHO) “a country cannot vaccinate itself out of a pandemic” and they have set a target rates of 40% vaccination in every country in the world by the end of this year. However, the New Zealand government has ignored this advice and set a target of 90% of the population. It is clear that they actually want 100% vaccinated, because they are actively discriminating against unvaccinated healthy people. The WHO state that it is a scandal that countries like New Zealand are offering booster shots (a third vaccination, with the same vaccine), when in many low-income countries have not had a primary dose.—12-november-2021


  • Why has the New Zealand government not provided a risk assessment such as this one for the general public to assist them with the decision to be vaccinated or not?


  • How can any business dictate to the staff that they must be fully vaccinated without providing a risk assessment such as this one?


  • It seems clear that from the information given by both the CDC and the WHO, only people at risk should be vaccinated and then only those who after reading a risk assessment and decide for themselves should be vaccinated. Calling for a 90% vaccination target results in unnecessary deaths and suffering in low-income countries. The New Zealand Government are part of this scandal.


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